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“十五五”时期,我国发展环境面临深刻复杂变化:向内看,人口老龄化程度加深,资源环境等硬约束增强,传统经济增长动力逐步减弱;向外看,经济全球化遭遇逆流,世界经济增长乏力。

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US inflati

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On Christmas Day, I left the kitchen midmorning for a few hours’ sleep and returned in the afternoon to bake the final items, and to decorate, label, and platter my contributions to the big feed. When I finished, I sat down, inhaling the earthy holiday smell—a mix of stuffing, cheap red wine, and bodies perspiring in the unusual warmth of the room. Every so often, I got up to replace a cake or deliver a fresh plate of cookies. I wanted to be certain that the rosy-cheeked mechanics and heavy-equipment operators, nearly unrecognizable without their insulated, chocolate-brown Carhartt overalls, weren’t deprived of any pleasure. At the end of the galley, the strangers I’d slowly come to know gripped blue plastic trays as they moved down the length of the steam table, heaping duck, potatoes, gravy, roast beef, and peas onto their plates. I watched them collect pats of shiny foil-wrapped butter to smear on the pillowy white rolls I’d made. I hoped that they’d like them, and that I’d made enough for everyone. ♦

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For now, as Gimbel explained, investors are settling for the status quo, but it’s only a matter of time before we hit a Sleepless in Stagflation moment and investors find better options. Much like a would-be suitor exaggerating how big their heart is, publicly held debt is pretty substantially—it already is as large as the U.S. GDP, and it will exceed the all-time record set after World War II in the comings years. Publicly held debt then will continue marching higher with no sign of abating as retiring baby boomers drive up entitlement spending.

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